As I approach my thirties, something unexpected happened. I started using Nextdoor more than Twitter, Instagram, or even Facebook.
Open most social platforms today and it feels like nonstop AI content and monetization schemes. Everyone has an angle. Everyone is selling something. It feels manufactured.
Nextdoor feels different. It is local and it is real.
The moment that changed my view was small. I noticed a traffic camera at an intersection near me going from green directly to red with no yellow. Right turns on red there trigger a $600 ticket. I posted about it on Nextdoor and over 7,00 people saw it in a single day despite only posting on the platform once prior. The comments were real. People were frustrated. People were engaging. It was neighbors talking to neighbors.
That made me look at the company differently.
Nextdoor is publicly traded under NXDR. It went public via SPAC a few years ago. From a marketing perspective, what they have is powerful. Hyper targeted advertising is incredibly valuable, and Nextdoor may have one of the most underappreciated targeting advantages online.
They do not just know what you click on. They know where you live. Down to your neighborhood, your zip code, your town. That is the entire product. Facebook and Instagram have location data for some users, but many people never input their real address. On Nextdoor, location is the point.
For advertisers, that is gold. A local contractor, real estate agent, city election campaign, or restaurant opening can target specific neighborhoods. That kind of advertising can convert extremely well.
The scale is not small. Nextdoor reports over 100 million registered users. Roughly 45 million people use the platform weekly. In simple terms, there are more than 100 million accounts and about 40 to 46 million weekly active users.
Financially, the company is growing, but slower than before. They are losing money, but losing less each year. The most important piece is the balance sheet. The market cap is around 654 million with an enterprise value roughly 284 million.
If you bought the entire company today, you would effectively be paying around 370 million for the operating business after accounting for cash. For a platform with over 100 million registered users and meaningful engagement, that is interesting.
There is no near term bankruptcy risk. They have plenty of runway. They have also recently improved operating cash flow and are approaching break even territory.
The biggest risk is stock based compensation. They are paying roughly 70 million per year in equity. That dilutes shareholders and cannot be ignored. Even if the business improves, dilution can limit upside.
Here is how I think about the asymmetry. At around 1.65 per share going into earnings, you are effectively valuing the business at about 370 million. With over 100 million registered users, each user only needs to generate a few dollars of incremental advertising value to justify today’s price. If advertising improves, if they reach profitability, or if a larger company sees value in their geo verified audience, the multiple could expand meaningfully.
It is not a guaranteed compounder. Growth is not explosive. But the balance sheet is strong, the user base is real, and the targeting advantage is unique. There is also real acquisition optionality. A larger tech company or private equity fund could look at 100 million geo verified users and see something worth more than 370 million.
I am long NXDR at 1.65. It is a calculated, asymmetric bet on improving fundamentals and the possibility that the market is undervaluing a very specific kind of digital asset.
As I turn 30, I find myself less interested in internet noise and more interested in my actual community. That shift made me pay attention. Sometimes using the product tells you more than the numbers do.
*This is not investment advice.
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